The Bottom-up approach to Sales Forecasting starts with the Marketing Funnel

Most sales forecasts start too late—at the pipeline stage—missing the real drivers of revenue. This blog shows why the most accurate forecasts begin at the marketing funnel, tracking MQLs through to Sales Accepted Leads and wins. Learn how RevSure’s bottom-up approach connects funnel health to forecast accuracy, spots risks early, and helps teams hit targets with confidence.

You Think Forecasting Starts with Deals? Think Again.

We’re wired to think in straight lines. A lead becomes an MQL, which becomes an SQL, which becomes a deal, and then, hopefully, a win. But forecasting revenue based on what’s in the pipeline today ignores the most critical part of the journey: how those leads even got there.

Forecasting from the top down? That’s linear thinking.
Forecasting from the ground up? That’s funnel intelligence.

At RevSure, we believe the most accurate revenue forecasts start at the first touchpoint, long before the opportunity is created.

‍

Let’s Talk About Lucy

Let’s say Lucy joins your Enterprise Sales team with a $1M quota this quarter. The rule of thumb? She needs 3x coverage, $3M in pipeline, to confidently hit her goal.

But here’s the catch.

Some of that pipeline isn’t real. Some deals don’t have a budget. Some were created without proper qualification. Which means it’s not really pipeline, it’s noise.

Only SALs (Sales Accepted Leads) count as True Pipeline.

So Lucy doesn’t need $3M in open pipeline. She needs $3M in qualified, accepted, and real pipeline to stand a chance.

Why the Marketing Funnel Is Where Forecasting Really Begins

If we trace pipeline back far enough, we land at the top of the funnel.

A lead submits a form
It gets scored and becomes an MQL
An SDR qualifies it to create an SQL
An Opportunity is opened
Sales accepts it (or doesn’t) as an SAL

Each stage is a filter. A gate. A chance to lose, or improve, forecast confidence. When Sales forecasts revenue without accounting for funnel quality, they're flying blind. RevSure’s Full‑Funnel Analytics connects MQLs to SALs and closed revenue in a single unified flow for better forecasting.

‍

Bottom-Up Forecasting ≠ Pipeline Math

Forecasting isn’t just about plugging in historical win rates and multiplying. That’s a partial picture.

Let’s say:

Lucy has a $3M pipeline
Her win rate is 30%
Forecast? $900K expected to close

Sounds solid. But what if 25% of her opportunities shouldn’t have been created at all? The real win rate is lower, and now her forecast is off.

Bottom-up forecasting accounts for funnel health, not just pipeline size.

It asks:

How many MQLs do we need to generate X SALs?
How many SALs convert to Closed-Won?
Where are the drop-offs, and why?

‍

Example: The Iceberg in the Funnel

Imagine your site form broke for two weeks. Nobody noticed. Now your MQLs are down, but that won’t affect pipeline until next month, and revenue the month after.

Top-down forecasting won’t catch this.

Bottom-up forecasting would have seen the drop in MQLs. And the conversion math would tell you in advance that pipeline, and revenue, will take a hit.

Forecasting isn't about what you see now. It’s about what you should expect later, based on what’s already broken.

‍

Funnel Visibility = Forecast Confidence

With a bottom-up approach, you’re not just asking “What’s the pipeline coverage?”

You're asking:

How many MQLs are needed this month to hit our Q target?
How many SQLs must be generated to feed our reps?
How many Opportunities should each SDR create, and from which sources?

You’re reverse-engineering revenue with precision. Every team has a role. Every stage has a responsibility. Forecasting becomes a system, not a spreadsheet. RevSure’s Pipeline Health Insights track how many true SALs are in your funnel and whether that covers future quotas with confidence.

‍